Great pitch, have seen a lot of interesting stuff on coal Twitter!
Curious to your thoughts as to why $200 is conservative for 2027 coal prices. Those contracts traded for $100 at the start of this year and while the current market is extremely tight I would fear that normalization of the market over the next few years + prices encouraging additional supply to start being produced may bring long-term prices lower than expected. Given marginal coal costs of $175 for Whitehaven I'd fear this may harm potential margins significantly (thus the cheap valuation on the stock today).
Great pitch, have seen a lot of interesting stuff on coal Twitter!
Curious to your thoughts as to why $200 is conservative for 2027 coal prices. Those contracts traded for $100 at the start of this year and while the current market is extremely tight I would fear that normalization of the market over the next few years + prices encouraging additional supply to start being produced may bring long-term prices lower than expected. Given marginal coal costs of $175 for Whitehaven I'd fear this may harm potential margins significantly (thus the cheap valuation on the stock today).